Bad News to United Opposition as Political Strategist Explains Why Ruto Will Win by the Margin He Wants

Lawyer and political strategist Saitabao ole Kanchory has warned that President William Ruto could secure victory in the 2027 elections by any margin he desires unless sweeping reforms are made to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This comes amid growing concerns over the commission's credibility following disputed by-elections in Mbeere North and Malava.

The warning was issued in response to a post by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who detailed a consultative meeting with IEBC officials alongside opposition leaders like Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, and Fred Matiang'i. Gachagua emphasized the need for transparent, free, and fair elections, decrying state-sponsored interference and insecure processes witnessed in recent polls. He called for mass voter registration starting March 2026 and vowed to resist the capture of independent institutions.

However, Kanchory dismissed Gachagua's statement as "absolutely nothing," criticizing its vagueness and lack of specific demands. "If you go to the next election with the current Secretariat and technology Smartmatics, William Ruto will WIN by any margin he wants," Kanchory stated on X, urging ultimatums and protests rather than "niceties." He argued that a credible IEBC renders agents superfluous, but without reforms, all is lost echoing his earlier calls for non-negotiable changes like restructuring the secretariat and technology.

Kanchory's comments highlight fractures within the "United Opposition," which he labeled a potential "catastrophe" if IEBC handling mirrors past failures like Azimio. Analysts see this as bad news for the opposition, as Ruto's alleged control over IEBC could undermine public confidence despite his unpopularity. With elections looming, demands for reforms intensify, as Kanchory warns myths about polling station finality crumbled in recent by-elections.

As Kenya grapples with these tensions, the opposition must unify on concrete actions to avert what Kanchory predicts: a rigged path to Ruto's re-election.



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