By declaring that "ODM was not born in a bedroom" and branding the current party leadership under Oburu Oginga as "sellouts," Winnie Odinga has successfully delegitimized the Ruto-ODM pact in the eyes of the grassroots.
This "rebellion of the daughter" has effectively halted Ruto's progress in Nyanza, as die-hard Raila supporters—now grieving the loss of their icon—view any cooperation with UDA as a betrayal of the Odinga legacy.
In Western Kenya, the situation is equally precarious for the president. The rise of the "Tawe" (No) movement led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has created a regional wave that rejects the traditional "kingpinship" of Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula.
By aligning himself with the sentiment of the Winnie-Sifuna axis, Natembeya has made it nearly impossible for Ruto to consolidate the Luhya vote.
The "siege" against Natembeya by state-allied leaders like Ayub Savula appears to be backfiring, turning the governor into a martyr for the "Mulembe" youth who are increasingly looking toward the United Opposition.
The United Opposition, led by Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua, is the primary beneficiary of this ODM internal war. Gachagua’s "grassroots push" in the Mount Kenya region—rebranding himself as the "Villager" who was betrayed by the system—combined with Kalonzo’s consistent "principled opposition" stance, has created a formidable alternative.
While Gachagua has rejected Kalonzo’s push to name a flagbearer by March 2026, their tactical cooperation has created a "pincer movement" that threatens to trap Ruto between a hostile Mountain and a rebellious Nyanza/Western bloc.
The emergence of Winnie Odinga as a "center of gravity" has effectively "poured sand" in Ruto’s 2027 campaign machinery. Her demand for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to review the ODM-UDA pact is a "ticking time bomb" for the current broad-based cabinet.
If the NDC takes place and the grassroots reject the alliance, the ODM ministers in Ruto's government will be left without a party base, rendering them politically useless to the president's re-election strategy.
This would force Ruto to rely solely on his traditional Rift Valley base and whatever fragments of the Mountain he can retain through leaders like Ndindi Nyoro.
Ultimately, the 2027 election is no longer a "walkover" for President Ruto. The United Opposition has been gifted a rare opportunity: a fractured ODM and a disillusioned Mount Kenya.
If Kalonzo and Gachagua can successfully integrate the Winnie-Natembeya-Sifuna youth wave into their formal coalition, they will command a voting bloc that could comfortably defeat the incumbent.
As of today, the "Broad-Based" bridge is burning, and the opposition is finally finding the "Truth and Equality" they need to mount a unified challenge.
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