"ODM Is Dead Without Raila", Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi Reveals Why Raila Cannot be Replaced

Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has declared the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) politically dead following the death of Raila Odinga. He argues the party’s influence was tied entirely to Raila’s personal networks and leadership.

Ahmednassir says efforts by interim leader Oburu Odinga to sustain ODM nationally are unlikely to succeed. He believes the party lacks cohesion, charisma, and the national appeal required to remain relevant.

Raila, he notes, was the central figure in Kenyan politics for over three decades. His ability to shape post-election alignments and mentor new politicians made ODM a dominant force.

The lawyer describes senior ODM figures as unprepared to take over the party. He views leaders like James Orengo and Babu Owino as unable to fill the vacuum left by Raila.

Looking to the 2027 elections, Ahmednassir predicts ODM will struggle outside Luo Nyanza. In Nairobi, the Coast, and Northern Kenya, he foresees the party losing ground to other political competitors.

He recommends that ODM focus on its traditional stronghold to maintain some influence. Expanding beyond this base, he argues, would likely lead to failure.

Despite claims by Oburu Odinga that ODM retains grassroots strength and national reach, Ahmednassir maintains the party’s future is uncertain. He sees its decline as inevitable without decisive leadership and a clear national strategy.

ODM’s survival, he concludes, depends on managing its retreat strategically. Concentrating resources and attention on Luo Nyanza is the only realistic path to preserving relevance in Kenyan politics.

Whether Oburu will be able to handle ODM challenges, only time has the answers.