On January 17, 2026, Governor Ken Lusaka explicitly called on his neighbor to "cross the floor" and join the government, arguing that the region cannot afford to be divided as the 2027 election approaches.
This "siege" is not just rhetorical; it follows a December 2025 Infotrak Poll that placed Natembeya as the most influential leader in the region with 50% support, significantly higher than veteran kingpins Musalia Mudavadi (32%) and Moses Wetang'ula (29%).
The "siege" is also internal. Natembeya’s relationship with his party leader, Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K), has reached a point of near-total collapse.
After a series of "party coups" and separate meetings in late 2025, Natembeya has increasingly operated as a "lone wolf," leading the Tawe Movement (meaning "No" to the old guard).
This isolation makes him vulnerable to the state’s "Broad-Based" government strategy, where he is being offered a central role in the 2027 campaign in exchange for dismantling his independent movement.
Despite the intense "wooing" by Lusaka and other Ruto allies, Natembeya has remained publicly defiant, recently stating that "Raila bado ana nafasi ya kurejea Upinzani" (Raila still has a chance to return to the Opposition).
By distancing himself from the "Kenya Moja" movement and criticizing leaders who have "sold out" to the state, Natembeya is trying to preserve his brand as a principled reformer.
However, with the UDA machine reportedly launching a charm offensive in Trans Nzoia, his "Tawe" stance is being tested by the promise of multi-billion shilling infrastructure projects.
The 2027 Calculus for Natembeya is a double-edged sword. If he joins Ruto's regime, he risks alienating the "Gen Z" and youth base that views him as a "truth-teller" against the establishment.
If he stays in the opposition, he faces a well-funded onslaught from Kenya Kwanza leaders like Susan Nakhumicha and Chris Wamalwa, who are already strategizing to unseat him in the next gubernatorial race.
His recent decision to "back down" from a 2027 presidential bid suggests he is prioritizing his survival as Governor, which may require a tactical "truce" with State House.
Ultimately, the question of whether Natembeya will join Ruto's camp depends on the "Synergy" Moses Wetang'ula mentioned earlier today.
If the Western vote is truly being consolidated into "one basket," Natembeya knows that being the only "No" in a region of "Yes" could lead to political irrelevance.
As of Sunday afternoon, he has not officially accepted Lusaka’s invitation, but the frequency of these public "wooing" sessions suggests that a major announcement—either of total defiance or a strategic merger—is expected before the end of the month.
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