Leaked documents from "Operation Total Silence" suggest a "deadly plot" aimed at not just arresting Bobi Wine but "neutralizing" the NUP’s leadership structure through a series of coordinated abductions and treason charges.
Bobi Wine, currently in hiding, has used social media to mock the state's inability to find him, even as his home remains under military siege.
The rhetoric from the state has taken a "lethal" turn, led by the Army Chief and "heir-presumptive," General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Muhoozi has publicly labeled Bobi Wine a "terrorist" and claimed on X (formerly Twitter) that over 2,000 "NUP terrorists" have been detained.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has confirmed that at least 118 supporters are facing charges related to the election, with many more reported missing. This crackdown is being viewed as Museveni’s "final act" to ensure that no youth-led movement can challenge his transition of power to his son.
Amidst this domestic chaos, a high-profile opinion piece by Mugendi Nyagah on Wednesday, January 28, has reignited the debate over the East African Federation.
Nyagah argues that Museveni is "right" that a political union is the "life insurance" for the region's long-term security and economic survival. He points out that Uganda’s landlocked vulnerability makes integration a necessity.
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However, Nyagah delivers a stinging rebuke, stating that Museveni’s "iron-fisted longevity" and "disregard for the rule of law" are the very obstacles preventing Kenya and Tanzania from signing on to the dream.
The paradox of Museveni's regional policy is "stunning." He champions a borderless East Africa to secure access to the Indian Ocean, yet his security forces abduct Kenyans like Bob Njagi the moment they cross into Uganda to support opposition colleagues.
Critics argue that a federation under Museveni would not be a democracy but a "larger stage for NRM patronage." As Nyagah notes, Kenyans who fought for multiparty democracy are unlikely to accept a "retirement plan" for a leader who has outgrown his own country and seeks to rule a superstate for life.
As of this afternoon, the East African Community (EAC) remains in a "state of paralysis." While the entry of Somalia and DRC has expanded the market, the "trust deficit" between Kampala, Nairobi, and Kigali has never been higher.
For the United Opposition in Kenya, the situation in Uganda serves as a cautionary tale of what happens when a "broad-based" government becomes a "broad-based dictatorship."
The future of the Federation depends on whether the region can move past the era of "strongmen" and build institutions that respect the very rights Museveni is currently suppressing in Magere.
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