A fascinating and revealing political drama is unfolding inside the Orange Democratic Movement as the party prepares for what could be one of its most consequential negotiations ahead of the 2027 General Election.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga has shed light on why the party's Cabinet Secretaries currently serving in President William Ruto's government will not be part of the negotiating team when ODM eventually sits down with the United Democratic Alliance to hammer out a pre-election coalition deal.
The reasoning is as blunt as it is politically telling. The four former ODM members who are currently serving as Cabinet Secretaries have been ruled out, as party members said they simply cannot negotiate with their boss.
This means John Mbadi at the National Treasury, Opiyo Wandayi at Energy, Hassan Joho at Mining and Blue Economy, and Wycliffe Ambetsa Oparanya at Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises will not be part of the negotiating team.
The decision lays bare a fundamental contradiction at the heart of ODM's current political arrangement.
The very individuals who carry the ODM flag within government are the same ones who cannot be trusted to negotiate on behalf of the party, precisely because their daily existence depends on the goodwill of the man they would be negotiating against.
It is a classic conflict of interest wrapped in political loyalty.
The Cabinet Secretaries drawn from ODM have already begun campaigning for President Ruto's re-election in earnest, while MPs sponsored by the party who benefited from parliamentary positions have elbowed out UDA-allied MPs in praising the President.
Critics and analysts say this premature display of loyalty has significantly weakened ODM's bargaining position ahead of any formal talks.
ODM is also grappling with the question of whether the entire negotiating team should comprise politicians or whether it should include technocrats, with the party considering a team of between three and nine people to lead the negotiations.
Party chairperson Gladys Wanga has stressed that the party's strength in any negotiation depends on its numbers, making it clear that ODM must first consolidate its own house before sitting across the table from UDA.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga presided over a nearly seven-hour meeting described by sources as tense and highly volatile, as senior officials publicly voiced their anger over what they described as a deliberate plot to weaken the party.
The meeting resolved that ODM members should stop campaigning for Ruto's re-election until outstanding concerns are addressed.
Oburu dismissed claims that ODM-UDA talks were collapsing, making it clear that formal negotiations have not even begun and that no negotiating team has yet been formed.
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