Brace Yourselves - Kenya Met Warns of Unusual February Heat​​

Kenyans have been advised to prepare for hotter-than-usual conditions throughout February, with the Kenya Meteorological Department warning that high temperatures and generally dry weather will dominate most parts of the country over the next four weeks.

In its latest monthly weather outlook, the department noted that while some regions may experience occasional rainfall, the overall outlook points to warmer conditions than the long-term average, especially before the onset of the March–May rainfall season.

According to Kenya Met, counties such as Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kericho, Nakuru, and Kiambu are among areas likely to receive sporadic rainfall during the month. 

However, the showers are expected to be intermittent and insufficient to significantly lower temperatures or reverse dry conditions.

“Kenyans should brace for sunny and dry conditions accompanied by above-average temperatures over most parts of the country,” the department said, urging residents to take precautionary measures to avoid heat-related illnesses.

The meteorological agency encouraged the public to stay well hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, and take necessary steps to reduce heat stress, particularly for children, the elderly, and people with underlying health conditions.

Despite the heat, Kenya Met explained that isolated rainfall events may occur in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Southern Rift Valley, sections of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley—including Nairobi—and parts of the south-eastern lowlands.

The department noted that these showers would be short-lived and unevenly distributed, offering only temporary relief from the prevailing dry and hot conditions.

Looking ahead, Kenya Met indicated that March is expected to mark the formal onset of the long rains in several parts of the country. 

April is projected to be the peak of the rainfall season, with more widespread and enhanced rainfall expected across multiple regions.

The prevailing weather conditions have been attributed to large-scale climate drivers that continue to influence regional weather patterns. 

Kenya Met highlighted the continued presence of La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as key factors behind the drier-than-normal conditions.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. 

These conditions often disrupt global weather systems and are associated with reduced rainfall in parts of East Africa.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, on the other hand, refers to temperature differences between the western and eastern regions of the Indian Ocean. A negative IOD—where the western Indian Ocean is cooler than the eastern side—typically leads to suppressed rainfall over East Africa, contributing to dry spells.

In light of the forecast, the Kenya Wildlife Service has been advised to establish additional water points in national parks and conservancies to reduce pressure on wildlife. 

Authorities fear that prolonged dry conditions could increase the risk of wildfires and intensify human-wildlife conflict as animals move in search of water.

The national government and humanitarian organisations have also been urged to remain vigilant, as the ongoing dry spell is expected to worsen food security conditions in vulnerable regions. 

Prolonged heat and limited rainfall could further strain pastoralist communities and small-scale farmers.

Additionally, relevant agencies have been encouraged to closely monitor major river catchment areas that supply hydroelectric power-generating dams. 

Reduced water levels could impact electricity generation, potentially affecting power supply stability across the country.