Within the coalition, Sifuna is increasingly being discussed as a "potential compromise running mate," positioned as a strategic alternative to Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Proponents of the Sifuna-for-VP ticket argue that his "Young Turk" appeal and mastery of urban politics in Nairobi offer a national reach that complements traditional regional kingpins. However, this rise has come at a high cost, as he currently faces a brutal internal purge within his own party.
The debate over Sifuna versus Natembeya represents a clash of two distinct political styles within the opposition. While Natembeya’s "Tawe" movement has captured the grassroots of Western Kenya, Sifuna is viewed as a "bridge" candidate who can consolidate both the Luo Nyanza base and the crucial youth vote in Nairobi.
This positioning has made Sifuna a target for those who fear he is "jumping the queue" in the succession race. Within the United Opposition, the choice of a running mate will ultimately decide whether the coalition leans toward a regionalist strategy (Natembeya) or an urban-generational shift (Sifuna).
The push to have Sifuna fired from his role as Secretary General peaked on January 5, 2026, when Migori Senator Eddy Oketch filed a formal petition for his expulsion.
The petition accused Sifuna of "gross misconduct" and "reckless sabotage," specifically citing his public opposition to the party’s cooperation with President Ruto’s administration.
Although the petition was temporarily withdrawn on January 7 following an intervention by Dr. Oburu Oginga, the move served as a stark warning: the "old guard" is prepared to strip Sifuna of his party instruments if he continues to defy the pro-government merger.
Beyond his party role, Sifuna’s position in the Senate has also been under fire. The Oketch petition explicitly called for him to be de-whipped from his influential position as the Senate Deputy Minority Whip and removed from all key parliamentary committees.
This "scorched-earth" approach is designed to weaken Sifuna’s bargaining power within the United Opposition. By threatening his parliamentary seniority, his rivals hope to reduce him to a "lone ranger," making it difficult for him to present himself as a serious running mate contender.
Interim ODM leader Oburu Oginga finds himself in a difficult position, forced to balance the demands of the "Ruto-leaning" faction with the popularity of Sifuna’s "Young Turks."
While Oburu oversaw the withdrawal of the expulsion bid to prevent a total party collapse, he has not fully shielded Sifuna. Instead, he has used the threat of the petition to "domesticate" the Secretary General.
This "controlled tension" allows Oburu to keep Sifuna within the tent while ensuring he does not gain enough momentum to overshadow the party’s official 2027 roadmap.
The survival of Edwin Sifuna is now a litmus test for the United Opposition’s ability to protect its most vocal assets. If the coalition allows Sifuna to be de-whipped and fired, it sends a signal that the "status quo" remains in charge.
However, if Sifuna survives this onslaught and secures the running mate slot, it would mark the official end of the "old guard" dominance in ODM.
As the coalition prepares for its next major summit, the question remains: will Sifuna be the "compromise" that unites the opposition or the "spark" that finally sets the Orange party ablaze?
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