According to the analyst, Raila was allegedly used as a political decoy in a long term succession plan designed to hand William Ruto the presidency for two terms, before paving the way for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i in 2032.
The analyst insists that Junet Mohamed, who has often been blamed by some ODM supporters for Raila’s loss, was innocent and unfairly targeted.
He claims the real strategy was designed at the highest levels of power and executed quietly behind the scenes.
“Uhuru wanted Raila to lose. Matiang’i was the architect of the failure,” the analyst alleged, adding that the plan was to neutralize opposition by presenting Raila as the main challenger while quietly allowing Ruto to clinch victory.
According to the claims, the arrangement would have ensured political stability for a decade, with no serious opposition, before positioning Matiang’i as the natural successor in 2032.
The analyst said this explains some of the internal contradictions and weak coordination that characterized Raila’s 2022 campaign.
He further alleged that key decisions during the campaign period were deliberately mishandled, leading to strategic confusion that ultimately cost Raila the presidency.
The claims have sharply divided opinion, with some Kenyans saying the theory explains long standing questions around the 2022 election, while others dismiss it as revisionist politics driven by current realignments.
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